With Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024, just 10 days away, early voting is already underway in more than 40 states. Candidates are racing to sway the last remaining swing voters—since, by now, most undecided voters have likely made up their minds. As October comes to a close, both campaigns have faced what many consider classic “October surprises,” with each disruption creating new challenges.
What Is an October Surprise?
An October surprise is an event that occurs in the last month of campaigning, typically with the potential to disrupt a candidate’s path to the White House. There’s no specific day or type of event that qualifies, as the label is subjective and varies among analysts and pundits. However, this October has delivered several surprises that may already fit the bill for both candidates.
Harris’ October Surprises
Vice President Kamala Harris has received significant criticism for her handling of relief efforts following two powerful hurricanes—Helene and Milton—that devastated parts of North Carolina and other states. Category 4, 350-mile-wide Helene hit Florida on Sept. 26 and then tore through five other states, including Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia.
As FEMA scrambled to support affected areas, misinformation circulated alleging that relief funds had been redirected by the Biden-Harris administration to support undocumented immigrants instead. This claim is false; funds allocated to support immigrants came from a reallocation by Congress from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection budget to FEMA. FEMA’s disaster relief funds were not affected.
The situation was further exacerbated by a controversial Instagram post from Harris showing her seated on Air Force Two, apparently being briefed by FEMA. The image, however, sparked criticism as it appeared to be staged—Harris’ headphones were visibly unplugged, and the paper in front of her was blank. Criticism also followed President Biden, who stayed at his beach house until returning to Washington, D.C., to engage in relief efforts.
In addition to the hurricane response issues, Harris’ campaign was hit by allegations from a former girlfriend of her husband, Doug Emhoff, who claimed to have experienced abuse during their relationship. The woman, identified only as “Jane Doe,” told the Daily Mail about an incident in which Emhoff allegedly slapped her. While this report has not been confirmed, it has gained traction and could damage Harris’ campaign, especially given her platform’s focus on women’s rights and empowerment.
Trump’s October Surprises
Former President Donald Trump’s October surprises stem largely from remarks by his former Chief of Staff, John Kelly, who in an Oct. 22 interview called Trump “a fascist” and “certainly an authoritarian.” The Harris campaign seized on the comments, with Harris and her running mate Tim Walz publicly cautioning about the risks of a Trump presidency.
Trump has also faced backlash for his own statements, which Harris has highlighted to underscore his controversial stances. For Trump to benefit from Harris’ October surprises, he may aim to turn the focus back on her campaign, arguing that Harris has focused more on criticizing him than outlining her own policies.
This year’s election promises to be historic. Not only did an incumbent candidate withdraw just months before Election Day, but Harris—if elected—would be the first female president and the first woman of color to hold the office. With polls showing a deadlock at 48% support for each candidate, it remains anyone’s race.
